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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
BHP EYES INDIA FOR COAL GROWTH AS CHINA DEMAND FLATLINES - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Australia’s largest miner, BHP, believes the long-term trajectory of the emerging economy of India and the acceleration of its steelmaking ou ...
Sunday, 05 January 20
BUNKER QUALITY CLAIMS IN 2020 - ISSUES TO CONSIDER - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In recent years the shipping industry has faced a significant number of bunker quality claims, most notably ari ...
Saturday, 04 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A 53,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY INDONESIA TRIP TO CHINA AT $4,000 AND A 58,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP TO THAILAND AT $5,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The New Year started with an erosion on pre-Christmas rates as the higher low sulphur fuel costs due to IMO 2020 affected levels. From ...
Thursday, 02 January 20
DMO 2020 PRICE SET FOR ELECTRICITY SECTOR - IAN WOLLFF
On the 26th December 2019, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued the decree No. 261.K/30.MEM/2019 about the States needs for c ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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