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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA COAL RUNS, A 58,000DWT SHIP WAS RUMOURED FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, IN THE $4,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Closing out the first full trading week of 2020, the Capesize market is struggling to gain any solid positive upward traction. Opening ...
Friday, 10 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remains flat
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
...
Thursday, 09 January 20
NEW IMO LIFEBOAT REQUIREMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Three new compulsory IMO resolutions entered into force on 1 January 2020. These resolutions deal with the maintenance, t ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
INDIA'S NEW EASED MINING RULES TO ENHANCE FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN COAL SECTOR: MINISTER
India’s cabinet has eased mining laws in a bid to attract foreign players to the domestic coal sector and reduce imports of the fuel, coal mi ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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