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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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