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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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