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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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