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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SHIPPING NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS WARNS HILL DICKINSON
The shipping industry needs to be prepared for potential restrictions in order to prevent the further spread of the ‘Wuhan’ coronavirus ...
Friday, 24 January 20
LOW-SULPHUR FUEL OIL PRICES DROP USD 99 PER MT IN SINGAPORE - BIMCO
Singapore has seen one of the largest drops in the price of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), which peaked on 7 January 2020 at USD 740 per metric ...
Friday, 24 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINED FLAT DURING THE PAST WEEK - XINHUA
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of coal prices in north China’s major ports, stood at 553 yuan (about 80.1 U.S. dollars) ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
PANAMAX: ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE PACIFIC BASIN - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
From bad to worse for the biggest ships as prices for low-sulphur fuel oil remain high whilst freight rates deteriorate further. Aver ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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