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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
COAL IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE - MINING REVIEW
The coal sector is living under the constant threat of being blamed by environmentalists as being responsible for a world disaster called global wa ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
CIL PRODUCTION TO NOT EXCEED 640 MILLION TON IN FY20: OFFICIAL - PTI
Hit by disruptions due to a prolonged monsoon, mining major Coal India Ltd’s production in the current fiscal will not exceed 640 million ton ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
WHO PAYS FOR IMO 2020? - FREIGHT WAVES
The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented its low-sulfur fuel mandate on January 1, 2020. Full enforcement be ...
Friday, 31 January 20
EIA EXPECTS U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES TO SOON SURPASS NUCLEAR AND COAL
In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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