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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 February 20
CHINESE DEMAND KEY UNCERTAINTY FOR SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2020 - THE BRICS POST
Coal trader Noble Resources head of research Rodrigo Echeverri Cardozo had penciled in a 3 Mt drop in Chinese import demand for 2020, but it could ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - WATSON, FARLEY & WILLIAMS
The continued spread of Coronavirus and governmental measures to minimise the impact is likely to affect the shipping industry and supply chain.
...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
INDONESIA'S COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.46% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The oil and gas industry benefitted from a strong and solid ground in the previous year. We witnessed a slow but steady increase in bunker’s ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
RUSSIA EXPORTED 28.6 MLN TONNES OF LNG IN 2019 - REFINITIV
A lot of attention has been paid recently on the surge in LNG exports from the United States. However, another country which is seeing truly expone ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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