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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 February 20
CAPE: THE AVERAGE EARNINGS PER DAY FELL BENEATH THE USD 4,000, A LEVEL CONSIDERABLY BELOW EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OPEX LEVELS - ALLIED
The recent slump in the dry bulk freight market may well have been expected to some degree, but despite this the shock was still overwhelming when ...
Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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