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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CIL LOOKING TO TAP NON-POWER SECTORS FOR INCREMENTAL COAL, PTI REPORTED
The miner is looking to ramp up production to meet its targets for the current fiscal at a time when the economic slowdown is impacting demand for ...
Friday, 07 February 20
VIRUS - HIT CHINA MAY NEED MORE IMPORTS OF COAL. NOW COMES THE TRICKY PART - SHIPPING IT THERE: REUTERS
China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. That’s a situation th ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus has dented market sentiment and spooked markets around the globe. When China sneezes, we all catch the flu. T ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Cape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-h ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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