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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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