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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The recent Coronavirus outbreak in China has led to a global health emergency by World Health Organization and it is yet to be seen how long the ph ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
CHANGES IN LNG MARKET COULD UNDERCUT PLANS FOR NEW JAPANESE COAL PLANTS - CLYDE RUSSELL
Reuters: Clyde Russell
The collapse in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is a short-term phenomenon that may wel ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY SEES FREIGHT MARKETS IN A COMPLETE STATE OF COLLAPSE AS DEMAND GETS PARALYZED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK - ALLIED
With China and the world still trying to contain the effects and come to terms with the Wuhan novel coronavirus outbreak, the shipping industry see ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION IN 2019 - BANCHERO COSTA
In a worrying development, global steel production slowed down considerably in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the final 3 months of 2019, total cru ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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