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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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