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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 January 20
PRIVATE SECTOR COMPANIES SEEK 'LEVEL PLAYING FIELD' FOR COAL BLOCK AUCTION - PTI
Private sector companies scouting opportunities for commercial coal mining in the country are seeking a “level playing field” to encour ...
Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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