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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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