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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Capesize market has hit new low's in the first week of the new year, with the West Australia route being fixed at USD 6.6 being ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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