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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 January 20
SULPHUR 2020 COMPENDIUM - HOW ARE INDIVIDUAL PORT STATES EXPECTED TO REACT? - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With the new sulphur limits soon to be in force, Standard Club has been investigating the ways in which certain jurisdict ...
Monday, 30 December 19
AUSTRALIAN MINERS HIT BY LOWEST THERMAL COAL PRICE IN MORE THAN A DECADE - THE GUARDIAN
Australian coal exporters have experienced the biggest annual drop in thermal coal prices in more than a decade during 2019, raising doubts about i ...
Monday, 30 December 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS RISE 4% TO 161.43 MT IN APRIL-NOVEMBER 2019 - PTI
The country’s coal imports registered an increase of 4.4 per cent to 161.43 million tonnes (MT) in the April-November period of the ongoing f ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
IMO 2020 COMPLIANCE: IT'S UP TO US TO BE GOOD CITIZENS - IBIA
One of the concerns around implementation of the 0.50% sulphur limit has been, and continues to be, the need for effective enforcement to ensure a ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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