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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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