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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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