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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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