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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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