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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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