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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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