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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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