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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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