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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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