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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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