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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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