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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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