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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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