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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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