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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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