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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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