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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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