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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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