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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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