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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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