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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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