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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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