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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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