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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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