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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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