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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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