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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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