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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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