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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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