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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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