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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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