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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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