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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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