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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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