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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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